Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Everything in Moderation: The Goldilocks Hypothesis

Psychologists (and others) have spent decades studying things that may or may not be harmful. Most recently, digital media, such as the internet or video gaming, has gotten that attention, with people arguing whether or not such media is harmful. Hypotheses range from 1) it's helpful, but mostly for people with social anxiety because it gives them a more comfortable outlet for interaction, to 2) it's harmful, because it encourages people to forgo real interactions for fake ones, and everything in between.

But as with many things, the real relationships is probably more complex. For instance, it doesn't have to be a linear relationship of more use = more harm. It could be beneficial up to a point before it starts being harmful. This is the basis of the so-called Goldilocks hypothesis: Too little doesn't really do anything (good or bad) and too much is harmful; there is some level in between that is "just right."

A recent study published in Psychological Science set out to test this hypothesis among adolescents:
The research reported here was the first to systematically test for curvilinear relations between well-being and screen time measured continuously, separately for different digital activities and days of the week. As predicted by the Goldilocks hypothesis, we expected to find curvilinear associations, with no costs to mental well-being for moderate levels of screen time and some detriments at high levels. For the first time in this area of research, we defined low and high levels of screen time empirically by testing for local maxima, the inflection points, operationalized as the points at which the slopes relating screen time to well-being approached zero before reversing in sign. Thus, we identified the point at which each type of media use shifted from having a null or positive relation with mental well-being to having a negative relation indicating a detrimental effect.
Basically, if you plot the relationship between screen time and some measure of well-being, they expected it to look something like this:


You can't draw a single line through this - you would need to draw a curve. But another approach mathematically would be to draw many lines, to represent the different trends in the data at different points. The researchers looked for the point where a single line drawn through part of this figure was basically horizontal (a slope of 0), followed by another line that goes downward (negative trend). That is the local maxima - the point where screen time has the strongest effect on well-being and also the point at which additional screen time starts becoming harmful.

What's also cool about this study? They had over 120,000 participants! And here's what they found:
Local extrema were at 1 hr 40 min for weekday video-game play and 1 hr 57 min for weekday smartphone use. In contrast, watching videos and using computers for recreational purposes appeared to be less potentially disruptive at these levels, as the local extrema for these activities on weekdays were 3 hr 41 min and 4 hr 17 min, respectively. Indeed, some digital activities might be better suited than others to weekdays. For example, it is relatively easy to switch between different tasks using a computer, whereas an activity such as playing a video game requires more dedicated attention. For weekends, the derived inflection points ranged from 3 hr 35 min for playing video games to 4 hr 50 m for watching videos. Thus, the pivot points between moderate and potentially harmful screen time were notably higher and less variable for weekend days than for weekdays, which suggests that the nature and amount of engagement matter for understanding the relations between digital-screen time and mental well-being.
Below, these values they found positive relationships between screen time and well-being for all screen activities except weekend smartphone use, and above these values, negative relationships. So these are the happy mediums.

Monday, January 30, 2017

For Those Keeping Score at Home

Trump just dipped into negatives in his approval rating after only 8 days in office.

In related news, FiveThirtyEight introduced the Trump score:
Donald Trump has Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress — it’s the first time since Barack Obama’s first two years in office that the same party has controlled the U.S. Senate, the House and the White House. Trump’s ability to enact his policies, therefore, will largely come down to how often GOP senators and representatives buck the president’s agenda and, conversely, how often Democrats work with him. To help keep up with this, we’ll be tracking how often members agree with Trump and how that compares with expectations.

We’ll be using two primary measures for each member of Congress: the “Trump score” and “Trump plus-minus.”

The Trump score is a simple percentage showing how often a senator or representative supports Trump’s positions.

Plus-minus measures how frequently a member agrees with Trump compared with how frequently we would expect the member to, based on Trump’s 2016 vote margin in the member’s state or district.

A Case of the Mondays

It's Monday again. If you're like me, waking up early and heading to work often feels like a rude awakening after a pleasant weekend. Yesterday, Glamour shared this post on how to prevent the Monday blues:
1. Pinpoint the problem. Just because we all get the Monday Blues from time to time doesn't mean it's a one-size-fits-all problem. Challenge yourself to find the source of your anxiety, whether it's a recurring morning meeting or a true dislike of your job.

2. Use Sundays to plan your week. Sundays are actually your Monday Blues-beating secret weapon. If you make a to-do list on Sunday, you can hit the ground running.

3. Get plenty of rest. To start your Monday off right, go to bed early enough Sunday night to log a solid eight hours of sleep—or however long your body really needs. You know the right number for you.

4. Start it right. Make it a routine to start your mornings off right.

5. Dress to win. You have to dress for success—especially on Mondays. Pick out your snazziest shoes, your brightest bling, or your favorite fight-the-frumps blazer, and be ready to kick buns when you come out of your closet. Of course, you can deck out more than your personal appearance—you can dress up your desk, too.
Some of these are stupid obvious - of course we all know you can't stay up as late on Sunday as you did Friday or Saturday. But I do like the idea of making a to-do list on Sunday, so the week feels more manageable.

And someone on Sirius XM 80's on 8 has a sense of humor this morning - they gave me this gem on my commute.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Poor Productivity

If you're like me, you've probably noticed that your productivity has gone down in the last week. Though my most important job tasks are being finished, other things are getting pushed aside: the abstract I'm working on for an upcoming conference (which, blissfully, the abstract deadline has been extended from Tuesday to Thursday of next week), the book I promised to beta-read for a NaNoWriMo friend, the a capella arrangement I'm supposed to be writing, and the short story contest I'm participating in - all these things keep getting dragged on, as I get distracted by the latest developments in Washington.

Fortunately, Eileen Webb gets it, and offered this post about Productivity in Terrible Times:
I think I’m not the only one who hasn’t been getting much done lately in the realm of “normal work”. I may pretend like I’m working on documentation for a new CMS, but — I’m sorry, who was just appointed to the cabinet? He said what? Oh, for fuck’s sake.

When your heart is worried for your Muslim friends, and deep in your bones you’re terrified about losing access to healthcare, it’s very hard to respond graciously to an email inquiring about the latest microsite analytics numbers. “THE WORLD IS BURNING. I will have those content model updates ready by Thursday. Sincerely, and with abject terror, Eileen.”

By all means, if you’re able to shift your job so that you’re working directly with causes you believe in, go for it. But don’t get stuck on the idea that your job isn’t valuable unless you’ve dedicated your career to a non-profit. All of our work is capable of enabling righteous acts.


Set up automatic donations.Set aside time in your calendar for volunteering and local government work.Schedule time for actual work as well. This seems like a small thing, but it can be pretty huge: instead of trying to get work done in the “unscheduled” gaps of time in your calendar between meetings and calls, schedule time blocks throughout the week to reserve uninterrupted time for yourself.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t wait until you’ve burned out to assess your regular routine with an eye towards sustainability. Repeat after me: It is not a dereliction of duty to care for yourself. Did that make your breath catch a little? Inhale. Exhale. Say it again.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

2016 in Film

So 2016 was a bad year for many of reasons, but it was apparently a great year for movies. The Blacklist looked at the top 10 movies of the year, according to Metacritic, and compared their performance to the top 10 from previous years (going back to 2005). The top 10 from 2016 had the second highest average rating, the highest going to 2013 (the year that gave us 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle, among others).

Here are the 10 most highly rated films from 2016:

For comparison, 6 of these films have been nominated for at least one Academy Award.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Inauguration Speech

So I finally sat down and watched Trump's inauguration speech:


In all seriousness though, I really couldn't bring myself to watch Trump's actual speech. I read it instead. I'm sure someone else has probably already done this, but I was curious, so I examined the readability statistics of Trump's speech.


Trump's speech was written at an 8th grade reading level. Not too surprising, despite his insistence that he has the "best words." As you'll see in the statistics, his best words average about 4-5 letters each.